비선형 모형을 이용한 천연가스 수요 전망

초록

Due to the development of unconventional gas and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the importance of natural gas as a primary energy source is higher than before. Through nonlinear Weibull model, we analyzed the natural gas consumption to prepare the demand changes in the future. With the data from seven countries of OECD members, the energy-growth hypothesis (the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth can be represented by a S-shaped curve) for natural gas is tested. As results, natural gas consumption as well as total primary energy supply was well explained via S-shaped (Weibull) curve. However, the shape difference between countries was also existed. We thus drew the implications from the results based on the energy mix of each country.

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