민관합동형 PF 사업의 위험분석에 근거한 적정 수익률 연구

초록

This study analyses the risks of Public-Private Partnership(PPP) projects in real estate and provides a financial model to find the rate of return that reflects the analyzed risks of the projects. Target risks include the construction risk, the sponsor risk and the demand risk. Using the model, rates of return for two PPP projects are derived from the premiums on these risks. The construction risk is estimated from the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) based on fluctuation of construction expenses. The sponsor risk is estimated by the spread between risk free rate and corporate bond rate through weighted average credit rating of the sponsors. The demand risk is evaluated based on the concept of the reserved equity for risk. This study derives the rate of return for a PPP project by summing each risk premium and risk free rate and provides several implications for the PPP project market.

키워드