수원-서울 광역버스 첨두시간대 차내 혼잡 영향요인 분석 : 스마트카드 데이터를 활용하여

초록

This study analyzes factors affecting in-vehicle crowding for commuters on regional buses between Suwon and Seoul using smart card data in July 2023. Despite increasing public transit ridership in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, the regional bus system faces significant challenges during peak commuting hours, including boarding denials, in-vehicle crowding, and extended waiting times. While previous studies have focused on measuring passenger satisfaction, estimating congestion costs, or analyzing commuting patterns within single municipalities, empirical analyses of intercity transportation have been limited. This research conducts multiple regression analysis on 1,031 route-specific bus stop observations, examining the relationship between in-vehicle crowding and factors related to regional bus service characteristics, demographic patterns, and land use features. The results reveal that the population aged 20-39 years has a significant positive effect on crowding, while the population aged 40-59 years shows a strong negative relationship. Additionally, average road speed, service frequency, and residential area size positively correlate with crowding in both peak periods, while operation time per distance and residential floor area demonstrate negative relationships. Notably, standing restrictions exhibit a significant negative association with crowding during evening peak hours. These findings provide quantitative evidence for developing targeted transportation policies to improve service quality and efficiency in metropolitan public transit systems.

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