전환부문 배출권 유상할당 확대의 경제 효과 분석

초록

This study developed a CGE model that disaggregates the electricity sector by generation technology to analyze the economic impact of expanding allowance auctioning in the electricity sector. The model improved on the limitations of the GTAP-E model, which cannot account for domestic emissions trading, allowances by sector, and the incorporation of auctioned allowance costs into production costs. Based on the 2030 NDC targets for the power sector, nine scenarios were constructed considering auctioning rates of 10%, 50% and 100%. Increasing the share of auctioned allowances significantly increased carbon abatement, but had significant negative economic impacts. GDP declined by up to 1.6%, with electricity prices rising, industrial production falling, and exports weakening. A comparative scenario analysis showed that setting the allowance level lower than the sectoral targets in the 2030 NDC with a higher auctioning share could achieve greater carbon reductions while mitigating negative economic impacts.

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