지방소멸의 원인: 인구이동의 영향요인을 중심으로

초록

This study examined factors influencing population movement in municipalities at risk of extinction in order to generate information that can help design local extinction reaction policies. We investigated time series changes and mean differences in moving in and out by generation through descriptive analysis, and estimated panel regression models to identify factors affecting moving in and out municipalities at risk of extinction. The results of descriptive analysis suggest that the population decline in municipalities at risk of extinction was mainly caused by a net outflow of 20∼30s. In other words, the results show that while there was a net outflow of 20∼30s, there was a net inflow of 40∼50s and over 60 years old in municipalities at risk of extinction. Meanwhile, the results of regression analysis show that the causes of moving in and out are different, and the factors affecting population movement are different by generation. First, the results reveal that income, education services, and medical services functioned as pulling factors that positively affected only on move-in, while jobs acted as a move-out inhibitory factor that negatively affected only on move-out. Next, the results indicate that income and jobs for 20∼30s, income, jobs, and medical services for 40∼50s, and income, education services, and medical services for over 60 years old are factors affecting population movement, respectively. The results of this study suggest that policies to respond to population decline by municipalities at risk of extinction should focus on increasing local income, creating jobs, and improving medical services.

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