코로나19(COVID-19) 이후 방한 외래관광자 수요예측: 개입 ARIMA 분석 및 회복탄력성(resilience)을 활용하여

초록

Predicting changes in the tourism industry following COVID-19 is a crucial task. Using an intervention ARIMA model that can compensate for external shocks such as COVID-19, this study forecasts the demand for inbound tourists visiting South Korea. Specifically, this study evaluates tourism's resilience in the aftermath of SARS and MERS. In addition, three recovery scenarios for forecasting tourism demand were presented, reflecting the resilience of the tourism industry. The first scenario assumes that COVID-19 is prolonged; in this case, the number of monthly inbound tourists is projected to remain stable between 100,000 and 130,000. The second scenario assumes the recovery rate of inbound tourists following the end of SARS, with 1.6 million visitors anticipated in February 2023. The third scenario assumes the recovery rate of inbound tourists after MERS has come to an end, with 2 million visitors anticipated in February 2023. Therefore, if COVID-19 is over, the trend of inbound tourists will return to pre-outbreak levels within two to six months. This study has academic significance because the intervention ARIMA model has the high prediction accuracy noted in prior research. In addition, it is significant because it is one of the only few tourism studies to conduct a quantitative study on tourism resilience after a disaster. Also, it can be helpful to policy-makers and tourism-related businesses in that it can present an empirical analysis system and provide objective data.

키워드