재건축기대에 따른 건축연령효과의 동태적 변화

초록

In general, apartment prices tend to fall over time due to aging. In the case of Gangnam, Seoul, however, where the demand is still high, the prices rise again after a certain period of time due to the reconstruction expectations. In this regard, this study aims to determine the time period for reaching the lowest apartment price in a time series, whether apartment prices fall as the age after construction completion increases and rebound from a few years due to the expected effect of reconstruction. Towards this end, 11 districts south of Han River were analyzed for the correlations among housing, location, and reconstruction-related characteristics and apartment prices. As expected, the estimation results confirmed that the apartment prices gradually fell and then rose again as the age after construction completion increased. The older the house is, the older the building age, the lower the quality of the housing service, and the lower the price becomes accordingly, but as the reconstruction time nears, the uncertainty about the acquisition of the house, which can be acquired after reconstruction, can be reduced, indicating that the price becomes higher. In addition, the inflection point was not accelerating in the market even though the standard period required before reconstruction was changed to 30 years. It is believed that the reason for this is that the current housing market in Seoul is being lifted, and as such, the sales ceiling and regulations on the maintenance business are reducing the possibility that the reconstruction project will be carried out.

키워드