장기요양제도의 재정부담귀착 : 세대간 회계를 이용한 접근

초록

We attempt to address the generational incidence of fiscal burden of public long-term care insurance provision in Korea, using generational accounting. The aggregate long-term care benefit is projected to rise to 1.5-1.6% of GDP in the long-run, and the long-term care contribution rate needs to rise from currently 4.05% to about 80% until around 2060, to maintain the long-term budgetary balance. The net fiscal burden of the future generations is much larger than that of current generations: e.g. the productivity-adjusted lifetime net fiscal burden of 2080 newborns is about 190% of that of 2008 newborns. Provision of public long-term care insurance is expected to reduce the benefit expenditure of National Health Insurance on the chronic diseases of old-age groups, and fiscal burden of future generations, however, the magnitude of reduction is highly unlikely to exceed the magnitude of increase in the long-term care insurance benefit and future generations' fiscal burden, induced by the reduction of out-of-pocket cost of purchasing the long-term care services due to public long-term care insurance provision.

키워드