광역형 수요응답형 대중교통의 승차 수요 영향요인 분석: 경기도 광역콜버스 사례를 중심으로

초록

This study empirically examines the determinants of boarding demand for the Metropolitan Demand Responsive Transit (M-DRT), a demand-responsive public transport service linking Seoul with the nearby peri-urban area. Using operational data from October 2023 to July 2025, we constructed explanatory variables incorporating the number of new and frequent users in the previous month, land-use and transit connectivity around stops, and weather and operational attributes. A random-effects negative binomial regression model was applied to accommodate the count nature of the dependent variable and unobserved heterogeneity across stops. The results show that land-use mix, bus transfer accessibility, and operating duration have significant positive effects on boarding demand. Notably, the influence of the number of frequent users in the previous month exceeds that of new users, indicating that retaining repeat users is essential for securing long-term demand stability. This suggests that preference for M-DRT strengthens through repeated rather than occasional use. Additionally, the positive effect of bus transfer accessibility implies that M-DRT serves as a complementary transferbased mode rather than a competitor to existing public transport. By identifying the causal contribution of a frequent user base to demand formation using real operational records, this study highlights the importance of customer retention strategies and strengthened transfer connectivity in future planning and policy design for M-DRT services.

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