환경 변화가 오프라인 유통채널 매출액에 미치는 영향

초록

In the distribution industry, uncontrollable factors such as unpredictable weather factors and epidemics, as well as competition among companies, have caused companies to face difficulties in establishing strategies in inventory, production, and sales management. Compared to online shopping, which can be accessed easily anytime, anywhere, offline distribution channels that consumers have to visit and consume directly are more easily exposed to changes in the psychological state and behavior of consumers due to external environmental factors. Because of these characteristics, this study focuses on representative offline distribution channels such as hypermarkets and department stores in estimating the impact of external environmental changes on distribution channel sales. The study also includes monthly sales and regional and monthly fine dust concentrations, temperature, population, MERS, and Covid- 19 events in 17 major metropolitan and provincial department stores nationwide. The purpose of this study is to estimate the influence factors of sales of hypermarkets and department stores as offline distribution channels. The factors affecting sales are limited to external environmental factors, and are intended to include fine dust concentration, temperature, local population, MERS, and Covid-19. In order to achieve the research objectives, we estimated the sales of major marts and department stores monthly, from 2015 to 2020, by 17 metropolitan cities and provinces, and their impact factors as an offline distribution channel. First, as a result of the Hauzman test, the fixed effect model was found to be significant in both models, and accordingly, the research results were analyzed with the fixed effect model as the center. As a result of the analysis, both Model 1, which estimates the influence factors of hypermarket sales, and Model 2, which estimates the influence factors of department store sales, were statistically significant at the significance level of 1%, but there was a difference between the impact factors. First, in Model 1, which estimated the effect of hypermarket sales, fine dust and Covid- 19 had a negative effect on hypermarket sales, but the population had a positive (+) effect. Next, in model 2, which estimated the effect of department store sales, fine dust and temperature had a positive (+) effect on sales, while Covid- 19 had a negative (-) effect. A common influence factor in both models was an epidemic called Covid-19. MERS showed no effect factor in both models. From the monthly or daily data, epidemics such as MERS and Covid-19 may be seen as factors that decrease sales, but statistical significance was found only in Covid-19 when viewed as time series data of 17 metropolitan cities, that is, panel data. These results can be seen as a factor that directly affected Covid- 19's sales to offline retailers more than MERS. In addition, the increase in the concentration of fine dust had a negative effect on sales at hypermarkets, but it was found to have a positive effect on department store sales. These results mean that if the fine dust gets worse, the sales of hypermarkets decrease, but the department store sales increase. In addition to the results of these previous studies, this study is significant in that it examined more comprehensively, including infectious diseases such as MERS and Covid- 19, population, and fine dust as factors affecting sales.

키워드