성수동 팝업스토어와 주변 음식업 생존 간의 관계: 소셜미디어 데이터를 활용한 실증 분석

초록

This study investigates the potential impact of pop-up stores on the survival of nearby food establishments through a time-dependent survival analysis. First, non-parametric Kaplan-Meier survival curves reveal a clear divergence between restaurants located near pop-up stores and those without such proximity. The survival curve for restaurants near popups declines more gradually, indicating higher long-term survival probabilities. This difference was statistically validated using the log-rank test, providing empirical support for the hypothesis that pop-up stores may have a positive effect on the survival of food businesses. Subsequently, a semi-parametric time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model confirmed that the presence of popup stores significantly increased the survival probability of nearby food establishments. Specifically, the presence of pop-up stores was associated with an approximate 29% reduction in the hazard of restaurant closure. This relationship remained robust even after controlling for locational, commercial, and demographic variables. However, the hazard function analysis suggests a temporal threshold effect, where prolonged or excessive exposure to pop-up store activity may, over time, increase the risk of closure for nearby restaurants.

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