세무조사 선정기준과 조세회피와의 관계 및 추징기업예측모형

초록

This paper examines three main points. The first is whether tax audit criteria by National Tax Service(NTS) are associated with firms` tax avoidance. The second is whether firms` tax avoidance declines in the tax audit year compared with before and after the tax audit year. The third is whether the forecasting model for additional tax payment firms using the NTS tax audit criteria can properly discriminate the additional tax payment firms. The main results are as follows. First, we find that the tax audit criteria related with significant tax avoidance are firms` reported taxable income ratio, whether the firm is family owned, and the discrepancy of inventory amount. Second, we find that firms` tax avoidance is decreased in the tax audit year compared with the immediate prior period. However, firms` tax avoidance is increased again after the tax audit year. The result implies that firms report faithfully overall tax amount in the tax audit year but the tax audit effect disappears as time goes on. Third, using the forecasting model for additional tax payment firms, we find that firms` reported taxable income ratio, the discrepancy of deferred tax amount between the ending and the beginning balance, and the prior period error corrections can significantly predict the additional tax payment firms. Accuracy of the forecasting model based on (0.6,04) criteria is 68.1% in the prediction sample and 73.3% in the validation sample.

키워드