출산의 지연변천 분석과 완결출산율 추계

초록

The postponement transition of fertility indicates a long-lasting shift of childbearing to later ages and a concomitant fertility decline. This study examines whether the postponement transition has taken place in South Korea and also explore possible approaches for projecting completed fertility. Building on prior studies, I analyze the postponement and recuperation process of cohort fertility in South Korea. The results are utilized to make the projection scenarios of completed fertility up to 1989 birth cohort. Data for this study come from the 1981-2020 Birth Registration Data and the Population Projections 2017-2047. The results suggest that since the 1969 birth cohort, the postponement transition of fertility has been taking place in Korea. While fertility postponement at earlier ages has continued to increase, only less than half of the postponement has been recovered at advanced ages. As the fertility recuperation at older ages displays signs of stagnation and decline, completed fertility is expected to decline further among the latest birth cohorts that are in the middle of reproductive years.

키워드