불확실성이 재정지출과 재정수입에 미치는 영향

초록

This paper examines how the fiscal variables are affected by the uncertainty proxied by Bloom’s economic policy uncertainty index in Korea. The impulse response analysis by Jorda(2005)’s local projection method shows that the uncertainty shock increases government expenditure and decreases government revenue. These results suggest a countercyclical government expenditure and a procyclical government revenue considering that the macroeconomic variables including production, consumption, investment and employment are adversely affected by the uncertainty shock. In addition, the positive response of government expenditure and the negative response of government revenue to the uncertainty shock are found only in recessionary period.

키워드