외부 사건 충격으로 인한 해외관광객 감소가 서울시 유통산업에 미치는 영향: 2015년 메르스 사태로 인한 경제적 파급효과 분석

초록

Korea has experienced unprecedented epidemic of MERS(Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) disease in the spring of 2015. During the period of MERS epidemic, the number of tourists coming from overseas countries, especially from China and Japan, was dramatically decreased. Such an unexpected sudden decrease of the huge number of tourists seriously influenced on retailing and tourism industries of Korea and, most seriously, Seoul city which is the capital city of Korea and the center of Korean tourism for most foreign tourists. The impact of MERS epidemic on Korean economy, especially on channel and retail industry, was analyzed by using IRIO(Inter-Regional Input-Output) model. For IRIO analysis, multipliers were derived from "2005 Inter-regional Input-Output Table (Bank of Korea)" including direct and indirect effects. Table 1 shows the industry multipliers by area and industry and these multipliers were used for the final Input-Output analysis. Table 2 shows the results of IRIO analysis regarding the impact of MERS epidemic disease. More specifically, MERS epidemic disease generated the decrease of 630 billion won of total production outcome in Korea. Because of MERS epidemic, 340 billion won decrease of value-added, 150 billion won decrease of income, and 9,436 employment job decrease were made during this period. Tables 3 and 4 indicate the impact of decrease of Chinese tourists and Japanese tourists during MERS period in 2015. The impact of Chinese tourists on Korean economy was much bigger than the impact of Japanese tourists in Korea. This study tried to investigate the negative economic impact of social epidemic disease like MERS on the channel and retailing industry by using the analysis of IRIO(Inter-Regional Input-Output) model. Based on the results of the IRIO analysis, implications and limitations of the study were also discussed.

키워드