불확실성을 고려한 기후변화 예측: 2. 내적 변동성

초록

When projecting climate change on future, considering uncertainties due to multiple GCMs and emission scenarios carried out in theprevious companion paper and that caused by climate internal variability addressed in this paper is one of the most crucial factors. Inthis study, a weather generator is employed to generate a time series corresponding to 3,000 years of temperature and precipitation forthree future periods, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, and two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from which the informationon climate natural variability was quantified. The comparisons among 3 uncertainty bounds have concluded that for precipitation,the climate internal variability is most significant regardless of time windows while for temperature, the uncertainty byemission scenarios tends to increase as the time passes.

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