축력을 받는 철근콘크리트조 부재 장기거동 예측의 불확실성 분석

초록

A probabilistic construction stage analysis using the Monte Carlo Simulation was performed to address the effects ofuncertainty regarding the material properties, environmental factors, and applied forces. In the previous research, creep and shrinkagewere assumed to be completely independent random variables. However, because of the common influencing factors in the materialmodels for the creep and shrinkage estimation, strong correlation between creep and shrinkage can be presumed. In this paper, anMonte Carlo Simulation using CEB-FIB creep and shrinkage equations were performed to actually evaluate the correlationcoefficient between two phenomena, and then another Monte Carlo Simulation to evaluate the statistical properties of axial strainaffected by partially correlated random variables including the material properties, environmental factors, and applied forces. Theresults of Monte Carlo Simulation were compared with measured strains of a column on a first story in a 58-story building. Comparison indicated that the variation due to the uncertainty related with the material properties were most severe. And measuredstrains was within the range of mean+standard deviation.

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