전세보증금반환보증 가입 요건의 변화가 고위험 전세 발생 확률에 미친 영향 : 서울시 연립, 다세대주택 시장을 중심으로

초록

The Jeonse system has long served as a vital mechanism for tenants to transition toward home ownership. However, it remains inherently susceptible to high-risk contracts due to persistent information asymmetry in the housing market. To address this issue, the South Korean government introduced the Jeonse Deposit Return Guarantee in 2013. However, this system has faced criticism for inadvertently promoting moral hazards among homeowners and tenants, thereby contributing to the proliferation of high-risk Jeonse contracts. This study examines the impact of changes in guarantee requirements on the likelihood of high-risk Jeonse contracts, using multi-level cross-classified ordinal logistic models with transaction data from Seoul’s row and multi-family housing from February 2015 to March 2024. The results show that relaxed guarantee requirements significantly increased Jeonse price ratios and the probability of high-risk Jeonse contracts. Conversely, enforcing stricter standards contributed to the stabilization of Jeonse price ratios and a reduction in the likelihood of high-risk Jeonse probabilities. Notably, the relaxation of requirements led to a more significant increase in high-risk Jeonse probabilities in newly constructed properties compared to older ones. This study quantitatively analyzes the effects of guarantee policy changes on the Jeonse market, confirming that policies intended to protect tenants may unintentionally increase market risks. These results underscore the need for the government to address potential moral hazards and to establish balanced guarantee policies that reflect market conditions.

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