거시경제변동 전후 주택시장과 경매시장 간의 관계성 분석

초록

It is known that the Real Estate Sales Market and Auction Market are closely interrelated with each other in a variety of respects and the media often mention the real estate auction market as a leading indicator of the real estate market. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationships between the housing market and auction market before and after macroeconomic fluctuations using VECM. The period from January 2002 to December 2008, which was before the financial crisis, was set as Model 1 and the period from January 2009 to November 2015, which was after the financial crisis, was set as Model 2. The results are as follows. First, the housing auction market is less sensitive to changes in the housing market than it is to fluctuations in the auction market. This means that changes in the auction market precede fluctuations in the housing market, which shows that the auction market as a trading market is activated. In this respect, public institutions need to realize the importance of the housing auction market and check trends in the housing contract price in the auction market. Also, investors need to ensure that they have expertise in the auction market.

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