수정 M-W모형을 이용한 축소도시(Shrinking City)의 주택수요분석

초록

Recently increasing the supply of housing policy has not been able to reflect social phenomena as like decreasing birth rate, aging of the population and increasing 1 or 2 person households. This study analyze the housing demand in the city with the point of population growth rate and economic character changes. Growing cities have positive population growth rate and economic character, but shrinking cities have the opposite. By comparing housing demand of growing cities and shrinking cities, we want to find out housing policy implications. In this study, results suggest that the peak age of housing demand of shrinking cities is the late 60’s. But the growing cities’s age peak is the mid-80’s. But further analysis of the economic variables and 1 or 2 person old and young household dummies, the result is that the peak age of housing demand is reduced. These results suggest that housing demand should be differentiated the cities's population structure and economic characteristics of the household. In short, housing demand will vary depending on the condition of individual cities.

키워드