서울 오피스 시장의 공실률, 임대료, 공급량간 구조적 관계에 관한 실증연구

초록

This study examines the structural interrelationships among vacancy rates, rents, and office supply in the Seoul office market. The analysis uses quarterly data from the first quarter of 2004 to the second quarter of 2025 for office buildings in Seoul with a gross floor area of 3,305.8㎡ or more. The empirical results show that changes in economic conditions and employment affect office demand, which is reflected in vacancy rates and rents and subsequently leads to supply adjustment after a development lag. In the supply equation, changes in the economic growth rate have a statistically significant effect on changes in office supply with a long time lag. This suggests that economic expansion may generate expectations of increased office demand, while actual supply requires considerable time because of development decision-making and construction processes. Current supply is also influenced by previous-period supply, indicating a development pipeline effect in which projects already initiated are delivered to the market sequentially. Although market adjustment may also occur through lease incentives such as rent-free periods, this issue remains a limitation due to data constraints. Nevertheless, this study contributes by jointly analyzing vacancy rates, rents, and office supply within an integrated framework for interpreting Seoul market adjustment mechanisms.

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