러시아의 대외정책노선과 2012년 이후 대외정책의 영향 변수들

초록

Russia got to the formation of foreign-policy line, 'an autonomous great power in Eurasia region' in 1997. While 15 years have passed, this foreign-policy line has not changed and will continue in the forseeable future. There is a difference, however, in that this line up to recent time has focused on an 'assertive defense strategy' to be recognized as a great power and, now, moves the focus to the 'strategy of great power normalization'. Among the four influence factors upon Russian foreign-policy line, one factor which is open to the possibility of change in the near future is 'Putinism' as a ruling system. Although Russian polictics and economic policy might turn to re-liberalization, however, as long as other three factors do not change fundamentally, Russian foreign policy will remain in the frame of 'an autonomous great power' line which has guaranteed long-term stability and predictability.

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