수도권 아파트 매매시장의 순환국면별 주택가격 및 거래량 간의 인과성 분석

초록

The study analyzed using HP filter method to Circular Phase of the Apartment Sales market in Seoul Metropolitan Area. Purpose of this study is to identify changes in prices and Trading of the housing market by and regions and to empirically analyze the correlation between the two variables. To identify the housing circulation phase by dividing the price fluctuation cycle and analyze the causality of prices and transaction volumes for each circulation phase, the research methodology of Granger causality test, cross-correlation analysis VAR(Vector Auto Regression) Model, and impact response analysis was applied. As a result, First the housing market has four housing circulation phases for each market situation and the causal relationship between prices and transaction volume varies for each circulation phase. Second, the correlation between price and transaction volume varies by region. The directions of the causal relationship between price and transaction volume were different in terms of supply elasticity, regional demand, and investment goods. Although the relationship between price and transaction volume by region and market situation was empirically analyzed, it shows a limitation in that direct factors affecting the market cannot be identified. However, it can be used as data to predict the future market direction according to regional characteristics for housing participants and government policy officials.

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