베이지안 방법을 이용한 시스템 성능 모집단의 신뢰도 예측

초록

System parameter uncertainties have effect on a system performance uncertainty. Therefore, effects of system parameter uncertainties on the system performance uncertainties should be considered in design of mechanical systems. Previous works for uncertainty analysis require the population distribution of the system parameter. However, in most practical engineering problems, an evaluation of system parameter population distribution is impossible because of cost and inefficiency. Therefore, statistical inference of statistical characteristics for the system performance population based on system parameter samples is needed. In this paper, the statistical characteristics of the system performance population are estimated based on system parameter samples by employing Bayesian approach.