유라시아경제연합(EAEU)과 유럽연합(EU): 경쟁과 협력의 변주

초록

This paper analyzes the structure of EAEU-EU cooperation and competition in the post-Soviet space based on comparison between EU and EAEU and its differences, and examines how the Ukrainian war affected the ‘integration competition’ between the two blocs. The EU has preferred bilateral cooperation with individual EAEU member states over cooperation between integrated structures, and Russia has pursued ‘divide and rule’ strategy for the EU. The efforts of the two integrating blocs to gain an upper hand in the ‘integrated competition’ that began in earnest with the launch of the EAEU were, above all, dramatic in the Ukraine crisis that broke out in 2013. Furthermore, the recent Ukrainian war has created a new turning point in the ‘integration competition’ between the two integrating structures and has resulted in the EU reorganizing its expansion policy. The Ukrainian war has led to the withdrawal of EAEU members' support for Russia, which has led to the weakening of EAEU's centripetal power. In the process, the EU is gaining an opportunity to expand and develop bilateral relations with existing member states within the competing integration bloc (EAEU), and is gaining an advantage in the competition to attract non-aligned post-Soviet countries to its side. All of these factors are expected to have a significant impact on the future political and economic development of the post-Soviet space. The fact that the EU has changed its perspective on accepting membership to allow Ukraine and Moldova to be candidates and Georgia to be a primary candidate shows that the enlargement policy can still be an important tool to make the EU stronger in coordinating foreign and security policies. However, the EU’s enlargement policy has revealed major setbacks and limitations under the principle of unanimity. The EU could be faced formidable difficulties over the long term in activating expansion policy by joining these three countries as members.

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