레버리지 위험을 고려한 전월세시장 균형모형

초록

There have been many attempts to interpret Korean rental housing market, where distinctive rental contracts including Monthly Rent with Variable Deposit(MRVD) and Chonsei as an extreme case of MRVD have co-existed. Although there have been some advances that interpret the function of the deposit in MRVD as a leverage, those trials were not completed. In order to develop a new partial equilibrium model of Korean rental housing market, this paper incorporates the leverage risk increasing as the deposit increases in the model. The theoretical results show that Chonsei-to-monthly-rent conversion rate, a key market indicator to understand Korean rental housing market, increases in the case of a lower sales price volatility as well as a higher expectation on price increase. In a similar mechanism, Chonsei increases as uncertainty in the sales market gets lower, as expected price appreciation rate gets higher, as price and pure monthly rent gets higher. This relationship means that Chonsei has more tight relationship with the sales market rather than a mere housing rent. The empirical results confirm that there exists risk premium in the required rate of return on investment corresponding to the leverage effect of the deposit. Also, it shows that the observed market conversion rates are similar to the estimated ones based on the developed theory in terms of their level and time trend.

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