부동산 과소거래시장에 대한 안정적인 실거래가 지수 산정에 관한 연구

초록

Recently, the scale of investment in the domestic office market has grown rapidly, and the demand for market information transparency is increasing as movements to revitalize indirect real estate investment are active. But information disclosure is quite limited and indicators for detailed diagnosis of market conditions are not enough. In particular, the price index, which can be used as a basic index for time point correction in evaluating asset value, an important factor as a denominator of the capitalization rate, has been released in various private companies in the past, but only some are maintained. Compared to the housing market, the office market has significantly less stock of the transaction unit and thus extremely low frequency of transactions, making it difficult to estimate a stable index using actual transaction cases. Therefore, this study intends to present a more advanced methodology for estimating the Seoul Office Price Index. To this end, the Bayesian approach was introduced instead of the OLS Repeat Sales model, which has been widely used, and the index was estimated using three Bayesian trend models. After estimating the index, as a result of comparing it with the index using the existing methodology, significantly improved index estimation performance was confirmed in various aspects such as the index stability, statistical reliability, and index change(Revision). However, additional considerations are still needed regarding the Revision, which is important in terms of the utility of the index. Nevertheless, this study suggested a way to solve problems that have been difficult to estimate a stable index due to low transaction frequency, and in the future, it is expected that more detailed market information can be provided by estimating sub-indices such as district or size category.

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