출생지 기반 인구구조와 청년인구 잔류비율: 지역 인구구조 변화와 유지 역량

초록

Place of birth reflects the social environment of early life while remaining invariant over the life course. Using the 2% sample microdata from the 2020 Population and Housing Census of Korea, I examine how internal migration has reshaped regional population structures and evaluate regional capacity for retaining native-born youth. Population pyramids based on place of birth are compared with residence-based counterparts to provide a counterfactual representation of migration-driven redistribution. A life-table approach is then used to develop the Period Proportion of Native Youths Remaining (PPNYR), which summarizes cumulative age-specific out-migration risks up to age 35. The results reveal substantial regional disparities. In Seoul, the capital region, and non-capital metropolitan cities, a significant share of the middle-aged population is composed of individuals born elsewhere, whereas non-metropolitan provinces are composed largely of native-born residents. Youth retention is highest in Gyeonggi Province and Jeju Special Self-Governing Province, while it is lowest in Jeonnam and Chungnam. Notably, non-metropolitan provinces exhibit cumulative out-migration beginning well before young adulthood, indicating that regional population decline reflects long-standing life-course migration processes rather than recent shocks. By shifting the analytical focus from population inflows to the retention of native-born populations, this study introduces a novel framework and indicator that advance understanding of regional demographic inequality in a low-fertility context.

키워드