자원기반 경제에서의 경제발전의 성과와 한계: 투르크메니스탄의 에너지 정책을 중심으로

초록

This paper aims to examine the legitimacy and development strategy of Turkmenistan's political and economic system and its reality and prospects based on the conceptual understanding of the rentier state (or rentier economy). The Turkmen economy heavily depends on revenues from natural gas, which are a major part of GDP. And, Turkmen state monopolizes the reserves of natural gas and oil, the revenues from them, and the right of distribution of the revenues. The Turkmen state uses natural gas revenues to consolidate its institutional structure. The state also wants to secure public support by providing housing, electricity and water and bread for them free of charge. As in other rentier states, the political justification of Turkmenistan is at a very low level, which is why the country is committed to continuing this welfare function. The Turkmenistan’s policy of natural gas and oil in have the structure in which the President exercises full power, and exclude or restrict foreign capital on the onshore gas fields while the offshore block is mostly dependent on foreign capital. The two main directions of Turkmenistan’s policy on natural gas are increasing gas production and diversification of its export routes. However, Turkmenistan takes a passive stance toward establishing new partnerships with foreign capital for inducing investment, technology and know-how, and maintains a policy of excluding or largely restricting the participation of foreign capital to the onshore upstream gas fields. In addition, the diversification of export routes is not successful except for the Chinese route, which poses a risk of deepening dependence on China. Also, Turkmenistan excludes Western companies’ participation in onshore upstream and maintains the key policy direction of the rentier states as of 1990s, which can intensify conflicts of interests with Western companies. In conclusion, the key policy direction of rentier states in Turkmenistan will not change easily, but only a severe recession will increase the likelihood of the change.

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