정책확산의 기제: 기초자치단체 출산장려정책을 대상으로

초록

Why does policy diffusion occur? To answer this research question, we examined the effects of learning, competition, and emulation mechanisms of horizontal diffusion and the emulation and coercion mechanisms of top-down diffusion by using municipal pro-natalist policies (PNP) in Korea. We analyzed the adoption of PNP, conducted a survey on the subjective perceptions of local policy makers, and conducted event history analysis (EHA). The analysis of the PNP shows that the municipality led the diffusion of the PNP; that the diffusion pattern of the municipality was consistent with the theoretical pattern, whereas that of the regional governments deviated from the theoretical pattern; and that the central government’s intervention affected the diffusion of the PNP. The survey results indicate that local policy makers recognized that policy diffusion occurs by all the mechanisms suggested in the theoretical debate, and that they were rational decision-makers. The results of the EHA suggest that learning, competition, and emulation mechanisms caused horizontal diffusion of the PNP among municipalities, and emulation and coercion mechanisms induced top-down diffusion of the PNP. These results imply that the results of the quantitative EHA and the subjective perception of policy makers on the mechanisms of policy diffusion are generally consistent.

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