북한의 외화수급 추정과 분석: 1991~2012년

초록

This study estimates the balance of foreign exchanges (BFE) of North Korea for1991~2012 on top of the work of Zang(2009). North Korea had suffered from severe foreignexchange drains since the collapse of the former Soviet Union. As a result, NorthKorea had to appeal for international assistance in 1995 and declare the ‘ArduousMarch.’ Due to the international assistance, North Korea had experienced a surplus inBFE during 1997-2002. BFE worsened during 2003-2006, recovered during 2007-2008and again worsened during 2009-2010, fluctuated in accordance with the evolution ofthe North Korea nuclear issue. The ‘May 24 Measures’ of South Korea put some pressureson North Korea’s BFE in 2010, but North Korea instead recorded a significant BFEsurplus for 2011-2012 due to a surge in mineral product exports and remittances fromworkers abroad. This trend is very likely to continue in 2013. However, we need moredata and efforts to analyse the sustainability of this trend.

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