초중등 장래 학생수 및 교원수 추정에 기반한 교원수급정책의 방향

초록

This study is to estimate the number of students and teachers in Korea for 2011 through 2030. We conduct the scenario analyses using future population estimates from Bureau of Statistics, resident registration data, and school statistics. Main contributions of the paper is the provision of estimate of students and teachers at the regional office of education level utilizing a dynamic change in population by provincial, regional and school characteristics, along with an explicit consideration of policy option about the teacher-student ratio. Our estimates are as follows. The number of students in elementary school is estimated to be decreased from 330 million in 2010 to 259 million in 2020, which indicates a 17% decrease. Middle school students decrease from 195 million to 137 million, a 30% reduction, while high school students decreases from 196 million to 127 million, a 35% reduction. The number of teachers is projected under the assumption that teacher-student ratio of Korea is reduced to the level of the OECD average of 2008 by 2020. In order to achieve the policy goal, both elementary and secondary school teachers are estimated to be increased annually by 1,760 and 717. The analysis shows that about 5,000 elementary teachers and 4,500 secondary teachers need to be hired annually considering the number of retiring teachers. Based on the result of the study, some implications for future teacher supply policy are drawn and presented.

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