연령별 인구구조 유형화와 전이 패턴 분석 : 2003~2023년 시·군·구 중심으로

초록

The rapid progression of low fertility and population ageing has accelerated demographic change worldwide, increasing the need for more precise analyses of population structures. Simple indicators such as mean age or the ageing rate are insufficient to capture regional variations. The population pyramid, however, provides a fundamental tool for understanding these dynamics. This study aims to reconceptualize population ageing as a spatio-temporal process by analyzing age structure types and their transition patterns, thereby enabling more precise policy design. To this end, five-year age-group composition data were compiled for 229 municipalities in South Korea over the twenty-year period from 2003 to 2023. K-means clustering was applied to identify ten age structure types, and their spatio-temporal distributions were analyzed. Based on their transition trajectories, these were further classified into six transition patterns: Youth Peak Decline-Driven Super-Aged Society Pattern, 2013 Aged Society Entry Pattern, 2018 Aged Society Entry Pattern, Working-Age Stability Pattern, Recovery Pattern, and Other Patterns. The results reveal a clear nationwide tendency for municipalities to shift from younger to older age structure types. In particular, youth population decline was confirmed as a key factor shaping varied patterns of ageing progression across regions. These findings provide an empirical basis for designing tailored regional population policies that account for local demographic conditions.

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