글로벌 셰일혁명과 동아시아 에너지 시장/지정학 변화

초록

In Russia, oil and gas, rather than the army and the navy, are being touted as the countrys most important assets. Many Europeans today perceive their reliance on Russian energy, in particular gas, as a threat. Some say that Russia uses energy as a political weapon and cannot be trusted as a supplier. Russia is sending record amounts of oil to Asia, eroding the dominance of the Middle East. Russias relations with Northeast Asian (NEA) countries have seen its ups and downs, but the year 2009 saw remarkable developments in Russia-NEA relations regarding both oil and gas. The resources of Asiatic Russia and the needs of China, Japan, and the two Koreas create enormous potential for economic partnerships. Although there is still some uncertainty regarding the size and economics of shale has, there has been ample evidence that increased shale gas production in the US is changing the characteristics of has markets in Europe and Asia. Significant shale has production has the potential to lower natural has prices in Asia. Changes in global gas markets will have a fundamental impact on geopolitics and international security. The goal of this paper is to examine recent trends in terms of the North American shale revolution and chart its potential global implications in Europe and East Asia. It begins by detailing the state of U.S. natural gas and oil production, and goes on to examine its impact – with particular emphasis on Northeast Asia.

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