경기변동의 생애소득 및 고용 안정성에 대한 영향과 복지정책의 역할: 미국 사례 분석

초록

We address the effect of economic crisis at high school graduation on educational investment, long-term income and employment status, and the role of social welfare policies to stabilize income and employment, using NLSY79. We find that the economic contraction induces post-secondary education increase and this partially offset the loss of long-term income due to the economic downturn. However, the magnitude of this effect for US is much smaller than that for Canada found in Chun (2015), which visited the same issue for Canada, because of high educational cost for college education. It is also found that the effect of government-guaranteed educational loan availability and education benefit provision on college education is smaller for US than for Canada. We observe the phenomenon that the income decrease due to the recession is sustained for a considerable time in both the countries, however the sources of the prolonged lower income are different between the neighbors. In the case of Canada, the income decrease is primarily due to the inefficiency of labor market that restricts the flow of laborers to the industry (occupation) groups that provide high income and employment stability. In the case of US, the long-term income decrease results from prolonged unemployment. These heterogeneous outcomes indicate the importance of policy measure relevancy based on the sources of income decrease and employment instability.

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