시나리오별 계약갱신청구권 가치 비교 분석: 옵션가치평가모형을 이용하여

초록

This study empirically estimates the economic value of the Right to Request Contract Renewal (hereafter, the “renewal right”), which was introduced in July 2020, and examines the economic implications of several recently proposed policy revisions. For this purpose, the renewal right is conceptualized as a call option, and its value is estimated using a binomial tree model applied to the Jeonse market for medium-sized apartments in Seoul. The results show that, under the current system (2+2 years with a 5% cap on rent increases), the estimated value of the renewal right is equivalent to 3.7% of the Jeonse deposit. In Scenario 2, which raises the cap on rent increases to 10%, the estimated option value declines to approximately 1.9% of the Jeonse deposit. In contrast, under Scenario 3 (2+1+1 years with a 5% cumulative cap), the estimated value increases to approximately 7.1%, or about 1.9 times the value under the current system. From a financial engineering perspective, this higher value can be attributed to the nested option structure, which provides tenants with greater flexibility in responding to fluctuations in Jeonse prices. The increase is even more pronounced under Scenario 4 (3+3+3 years with a 5% cap), where the extension of renewal rights raises the estimated option value to 14.6% of the Jeonse deposit. These findings suggest that policymakers should consider the potential trade-off associated with strengthening tenants’ renewal rights. While stronger renewal rights increase the economic value of the option available to tenants, the corresponding increase in option value may reduce landlords’ expected returns and create incentives to raise deposits for new Jeonse contracts.

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