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확률적 모의실험법을 이용한 석탄화력발전소의 건설사업비 추정
Estimation of the Project Cost for a Coal-fired Power Plant using Stochastic Simulation
- 한형기;
- 문승재
초록
Estimated project cost and executed sensitivity analysis for domestic 500 MW coal-fired power plants with monte carlo simulation. As a result of research, the basis of constant price in December, 2011 and 95% level of confidence, the project cost in case of not having adjacent power plant was 1,870 billion won to 2,330 billion won and the project cost in case of having adjacent power plant was 1,240 billion won to 1,590 billion won. In case of not having adjacent power plant is sensitive to civil construction cost but the other case is sensitive to material cost.
키워드
coal-fired power plant (석탄화력발전소); project cost (건설사업비); stochastic estimation (확률적 추정); monte carlo simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션); sensitivity analysis (민감도 분석)
- 제목
- 확률적 모의실험법을 이용한 석탄화력발전소의 건설사업비 추정
- 제목 (타언어)
- Estimation of the Project Cost for a Coal-fired Power Plant using Stochastic Simulation
- 저자
- 한형기; 문승재
- 발행일
- 2012-12
- 유형
- 정기학술지(Article(Perspective Article포함))
- 저널명
- 플랜트 저널
- 권
- 8
- 호
- 4
- 페이지
- 45 ~ 54