수도권 전세사기 보도가 주택유형 및 계약유형별 임대료에 미치는 영향 : 부정적 인식의 낙인·확산·풍선효과의 실증

초록

The Jeonse system, a unique lump-sum deposit lease arrangement in Korea, has long functioned as a core institutional pillar of the housing market. Since 2022, however, a sharp rise in Jeonse fraud cases—accompanied by a rapid increase in related media coverage—has heightened public concern and reshaped market conditions. This period reflects not only a growth in reported incidents but also a shift in how risk is perceived and internalized by market participants. In this context, media coverage can be understood as an information shock that influences expectations and sentiment, potentially leading to asymmetric adjustments in rental prices across housing and contract types. Drawing on approximately 5.8 million lease transaction records in the Seoul Metropolitan Area from 2017 to 2024, this study investigates the relationship between Jeonse-fraud-related media coverage and rental price dynamics using a multi-period difference-in-differences framework with weighted parallel trends (WPT). The empirical results indicate that rental prices in areas exposed to media coverage exhibit adjustment patterns that differ systematically from those in non-exposed areas, with the divergence becoming more pronounced as coverage intensifies. The effects are particularly evident in non-apartment housing and Jeonse contracts, where rental prices tend to decline as negative perceptions accumulate, consistent with a stigma effect. Over time, these perceptions extend to the officetel market, suggesting the presence of a spillover effect, while demand shifts toward apartments perceived as relatively safer assets. This reallocation of demand produces a balloon effect, reflected in divergent price movements across housing types. Overall, the findings suggest that Jeonse-fraud-related media coverage plays a significant role in shaping market sentiment and expectations, thereby influencing demand allocation and rental price adjustments across segmented sub-markets. These results imply that policy responses should extend beyond fraud prevention and victim protection to also consider the role of risk communication, as the diffusion and framing of negative information may interact with market dynamics and amplify housing market instability.

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