아파트 매매가격의 지역 간 전이효과: 일반화 예측오차 분산분해를 이용한 7개 대도시를 중심으로

초록

This study examines spillover effects of apartment housing prices across seven large cities in Korea. Unlike the previous studies, we measure total spillover index, directional spillovers, and net spillovers in a systematic and comprehensive way under the generalized forecast error variance decomposition framework which is invariant to the variable ordering. The empirical results show that over 50% of total variability of apartment housing prices are explained by the spillover effects, suggesting that the apartment housing market is fairly interconnected across regions. The subsample results and the rolling regression analysis show that the direction of spillover has changed. In the 1986-1999 sample period, the spillovers from non-capital regions appear to be stronger, while the spillovers within the capital area and the spillovers from capital area to non-capital area have increased since 2000.

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