서울시 고가주택에 대한 담보대출 규제가 주택가격 및 거래량 변화에 미치는 영향

초록

The housing policy in South Korea has repeatedly implemented suppression and easing of the demand to stabilize the housing market. As one of the housing stabilization policies, a distinguished mortgage regulation program to differentiate the limit on the ratio of Loan-To-Value (LTV) for high-priced houses, especially in Seoul, was enacted on December 16, 2019. This study aimed to empirically identify the effects of the mortgage regulation on the price and trading volume of high-priced housing by applying the difference-in-difference panel regression model for the four years from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2021, by quarter and apartment complex. The logarithms of the average house price per apartment complex and average transaction volume were employed as the dependent variables in the model after controlling for the other independent variables. The analysis on the housing prices model found that the higher the price of the apartments, the larger the decline in the increase in housing prices compared to the relatively low-priced apartments, which was less than 900 million won. In the trading volume model, the results indicated that the policy intervention for the regulation for the high-priced housing rapidly reduced the trading volumes more than for the reference apartment group. Therefore, differentiating the limit on the ratio of LTV by housing price had positive impacts on the price and trading volumes of relatively higher-priced apartments, while potentially inducing the balloon impacts transferring to those of the lower-priced housing.

키워드