Critically assessing and projecting the frequency, severity, and cost of major energy accidents

초록

Although energy systems are well known to lead to positive or negative externalities, one less explored attribute has been a rigorous historical and future looking assessment of energy accidents. In this study, we analyze an extensive dataset of 4,450 energy accidents from 1800 to 2018 across eleven energy systems. Our analysis reveals that these collective energy systems resulted in more than 278,000 human fatalities and approximately $421.3billionineconomicdamages.Historically,coalaccidentsarethemostfrequent,accountingforalmosthalfofallaccidents.Intermsofseverity,accidentsathydroelectricdamswerethemostfatal,accountingfor67percent.Intermsofcost,nuclearpoweraccidentsarebyfarthemostexpensive,accountingfor62percentofdamages.Couplingourdataandaneconometricmodelwithfutureprojectionsofenergydemandunderscoresthemagnitudeofthetrendsidentified:986,000to1.72millionpotentialenergyaccidentdeathsin2040,aswellasalmost$1 trillion in damages. This leads to compelling policy implications, especially concerning the need for safety improvements in energy systems such as bioenergy and nuclear power, as well as the need for the IEA and IRENA, among others, to begin to better track and account for energy accident trends. We find that across all accidents, fuel extraction and processing, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most fatalities, and yet conversion and operation, transmission and distribution, and transportation have the most damages. Moreover, achieving strong climate goals leads to an unacceptably higher risk of accidents and human health and economic consequences. Finally, as its economic development propels increases in energy consumption, Africa will become the future center for energy accident fatalities.

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