피겨스케이팅 올림픽 여자 싱글 종목의 득점 구조와 코칭 전략: 2006-2022년 올림픽 경기 점수 분석

초록

This study investigates how the scoring structure of technical elements and program components varies by year and ranking group in Olympic women’s singles. We analyzed skaters who advanced to the Free Skating (FS) after placing within the top 24 in the Short Program (SP) at the 2006–2022 Winter Olympics, classifying them into Upper (1–8) and Lower (17–24) groups and treating SP and FS as separate segments (40 cases per group; total = 80). Variables included jump/spin/step Base Value (BV), Grade of Execution (GOE), bonuses/deductions, Technical Element Score (TES), Program Component Score (PCS), and Total Score. Linear Mixed Model (Year × Group) with Bonferroni post hoc tests were conducted. Key findings were: (1) jump BV showed significant year effects (notably 2018 and 2022), with Upper > Lower across all years; (2) spin/step BVs also increased over time but were less discriminative than jumps; (3) GOE and bonuses rose over time, with larger gaps in FS and some significant Year×Group interactions; (4) deductions showed no year effect but consistent group differences (larger in the Lower group); and (5) TES, PCS, and Total exhibited significant year increases and group differences, with stronger discrimination in FS. Overall, recent cycles indicate that performance hinges on the interaction of difficulty (BV) and execution quality (GOE), while non-jump elements function as managed variables for reliable level acquisition. Coaching implications include optimizing difficulty×quality in key FS slots, routinizing non-jump level acquisition with selective GOE targeting, and preparing contingency layouts to mitigate deduction risk.

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