우즈베키스탄의 ‘경제성장 역설’에 대한 고찰: 초기조건, 체제전환전략, 경제실적

초록

This paper analyses initial conditions and transition strategy, and nature and application of the economic policy model, and mainly aims to make clear the background and factors of relatively successful economic performance of Uzbekistan since independence. The main concern of the Uzbek authorities during the early period of transition was the prevention of dramatic output loss, strong social protection and modernization of the economy through strengthening the industrial sector. In a way, these multiple objectives influenced the authorities’ choice of reform strategy. While announcing their commitment to market reforms, they had to keep firm control over priority sectors of the economy. By choosing a gradualist approach to economic transition, Uzbekistan was able to prevent drastic decline of output during the early period of transition. Several factors, such as socio-economic conditions, the structure of the economy, rich natural resource endowment, availability of export revenues and more importantly centralized management of the economy, explain not only the choice of reform strategy but also the relative restoring power of the economy in Uzbekistan. The policies adopted during this period helped the country to achieve its pre-transition output level by 2001 and guaranteed self-sufficiency in oil, natural gas, wheat and a number of consumption goods. The authorities also deserve some credit for maintaining the comparatively high level of expenditure on education and health care, although the quality of spending and thus the efficiency of these policies might be questioned.

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