OECD와 BRICs GDP의 卑금속 가격에 대한 영향 분석

초록

In this study, we analyzed the long-run relationship among BRICs(Brazil, Russia, India, and China) gross domestic product and six major base metal(Aluminum, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Zinc, and Tin) prices. In particular, we focused on the different effect of three groups that are OECD, BRICs, and BRIs(three countries without China) on base metal prices. To analyze those differences, quarterly data from 1996 to 2011 were gathered and cointegration and Granger causality analysis with vector error correction model were applied. As results, we could figure out the difference in direction and effect among the relationships and the influence of BRICs on metal prices was slightly stronger than that of OECD. Consequently, it is necessary to consider the effect of BRICs, especially China, when analyzing the base metal prices.

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