MCI모형을 활용한 연령대별 인구이동 분석

초록

The changes in population structure of korea due to aging society and low fertility is recentlyissue of korea. Therefore, the patterns of future population movements are likely to be different from the existing population movements. Because of this importance, the necessity of population movements analysis for age group was emphasized, but the empirical analysis on this was relatively insufficient. so, In this study, we analyze the factors affecting populationmovements by age group, and analyze the differences in influence on population movements among the elderly and other age groups, and to suggest implications for future housing market. Population movement has the essence that moving entity choose where provide the highest utility among the various residential candidates. Therefore, in this study, the MCI model was used to analyze these characteristics, and the differences in the size of the residential candidates were corrected then analyzed. Analysis result of general park, market and department stores, which are expected to have a great influence on residential movements, it is found that the areas adjacent to general hospitals are not preferred at all age groups , While those in their 20s and 30s showed preference to market and department stores, but not to other age groups. In general hospitals, unlike private clinics and public health centers, the percentage of patients visiting long distances is high. Based on the this and the results of above, it is possible that the general hospitals are cover very wide area. In case of market and department stores, 20s and 30s are relatively close market because of their relatively high dependence on public transportation such as subways. On the other hand, other age groups seem to relative less priority the neighboring areas because of purchasing using the car, living environment and crowdedness of the area where the market and department stores are located.

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