한국 대도시들의 인구분산화 추세와 대도시 인접성의 영향에 대한 실증(1975-2020년)

초록

This study aimed to identify the trend of population decentralization in Korean metropolitan cities over almost half a century and demonstrate their proximity impacts. We analyzed how the proximity of metropolitan cities has influenced the trend of population decentralization, which is measured as the spatial structure in population density, by comparing their changes over a long-term period. We employed the city-county-district level as our spatial analysis unit and analyzed each five-year period from 1975 to 2020 for metropolitan cities, such as Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangju, and Daejeon. Various variables representing the characteristics of the location were considered, and the adjacency to a metropolitan city was considered with the help of multiple regression analysis. Our analysis results on the trend of population density change with distance to metropolitan cities indicated that the spatial range expanded as the population in the outskirts increased during the period of rapid economic growth. In addition, although the trend of population suburbanization has continued since the 2010s, it was found that the trend has gradually decreased, denoting the arrival of the population stabilization stage in metropolitan areas. The results on the log-log multiple regression models demonstrated that although the metropolitan population showed a tendency to be concentrated in 1980, it has gradually dispersed in recent years.

키워드