Detecting Possible Reduction of the Housing Bubble in Korea for Different Residential Types and Regions

초록

The objective of this paper is to detect the arbitrage opportunity and to manage the bubbles in the Korean real estate market based on a binomial American option pricing model with heteroscedasticity. The limitation of previous research where the real options framework was first introduced is its macro-economic implication based on the utilization of the general housing indices. Therefore, in this paper, we extensively apply the model to different residential types and regions. The results suggest that the model can detect the realistic and reasonable trend of housing bubbles and the arbitrage opportunities for different times, residential types, and regions. We also simulate two scenarios to encourage the trades of real estate assets: promotion of early exercise, and the shortened Contract period. Performing arbitrage trading based on these two methods, we discover that both approaches effectively reduce the housing bubbles in all residential types and regions. Specifically, the promotion of early exercise reduces the housing bubble more effectively than the shortened Contract period. Hence, we advocate the utilization of the information obtained from the model to boost the transactions in the Korean real estate market in order to reduce the bubble-related risks and to support sustainable economic growth.

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