기초자치단체 신속집행의 지역경제 활성화 효과

초록

This study evaluates the effects of early budget execution(EBE) and intensive management of consumption and investment sectors(IMCIS), based on the perspective that not only the amount of fiscal spending but also its timing can affect local economic revitalization. The unit of analysis is the municipality, the time period is 2016∼2022, and analytical methods are status analysis, analysis of variance(ANOVA), and panel regression. First, status analysis show that while the EBE achieves its goal with a mean execution rate of 100%, the IMCIS has an execution rate around 20%, which is much lower than the EBE. Second, the results of ANOVA show that while there is no consistency in the mean difference for the EBE prior to 2019, the mean of cities is higher than that of districts and counties after 2020, and the mean of the IMCIS is generally higher in the order of districts, cities, and counties. Third, regression results show that the amount of fiscal speding is positively related to the GRDP, the EBE and the IMCIS do not have a statistically significant relationship with the GRDP, and fiscal capacity, the number of businesses, population density, and population are found to be significantly related to the GRDP. These results suggest that the EBE and the IMCIS may not be effective policy tools for revitalizing the local economy, flexible fiscal execution based on accurate economic forecasts is necessary rather than focusing on achieving execution rates, and, to revitalize the local economy, a comprehensive policy approach, which reflects the financial conditions of municipalities, the development of local industries, and regional characteristics, is needed.

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