서울시 오피스 수요예측 모델 연구

초록

This article aims to forecast office demand of Seoul. Primarily, determinant factors that may influence on office supply were analyzed based on the accumulated data of real office supply up to the present. For this research, Full-log regression model was applied, so that coefficients of each variable can be interpreted as elasticity concept of office supply. Also, time dummy was used to adjust the difference between the period before and after IMF crisis, and a time difference of supply was applied to the model. As a result of statistical analysis, most of estimated numbers of variables were significant, and the sign was consistent with our expectation. Total real GRDP and the ratio of office requiring industry, which had the most significant explanatory power, were selected as final variables, and IMF dummy was additionally considered to construct office demand estimation model. Secondly, this article elicited the estimated value of final office demand of Seoul, estimating total upcoming office supply of Seoul by calculating each variable(Economy-Size variables, Industrial-Restructuring variables) among several scenarios. This Estimation can be validated under the assumption that the equilibrium amount is determined by office demand and supply.

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