시변 모형을 이용한 국내 구리 가격탄력성 분석

초록

In this study, we analyzed the changes in copper consumption according to copper price fluctuations and identified the domestic copper price elasticity. A total of 408 time series data from January 1989 to December 2022 were analyzed using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model with net import volume, price, and production index as variables. In addition, to identify changes in the correlation between variables over time, the dynamic relationship between variables was identified using the time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the negative price elasticity for copper is ‒0.1835. In addition, the interquartile range was ‒0.3130~ 0.0886, with no consistent trend over time, but mainly negative elasticity. This study can be used to quantify the expected impact of various policy proposals and changes related to minerals.

키워드